What is your Risk of Ruin?

As traders one of the main concepts that we must master is Risk Management.  It is what keeps us in the game as traders and ultimately leads to better chances of profitable trading if we manage our Risk well.

I am often surprised to find that many traders have no idea of what their Risks are.  This involves Risk per trade, per day, per week/month and overall Risk of Ruin.  Most traders are aware of Risk per trade or per day, however very few are familiar with Risk of Ruin.  Possibly because they do not want to consider it as a possibility.  However you MUST.

So what is Risk of Ruin?  Well,  it refers to the amount of capital that you are willing to Risk before you must stop trading (Commonly referred to as “The Point of Ruin” or “Maxmimum Drawdown”).  Note this is not your full account capital, as you should NEVER risk 100% of your capital.  The Risk of Ruin is a statistical concept and is the probability of you reaching this level of ruin.   If more traders knew this they would never blow out!  Blowing out is very poor risk management!  Ideally a trader should never have a 50% Drawdown/Point of Ruin as a maximum, as they must gain a 100% return just to get to break-even!  A good recommendation to define your Maximum Drawdown (Point of Ruin) Level is ask yourself “What you are willing to Risk\Lose of your account capital and put at Risk?”.   None is not an answer! Because as traders you must take some Risk, as you cannot make any gains without taking any Risks!  It is imperative that you know what your risk is and are willing to embrace it.  if you are not willing to take any Risk on your account, then you CANNOT TRADE, it is as simple as that.  Ideally you should be willing to Risk somewhere between 25-30% of your account as a MAXIMUM draw-down\point of ruin before you must stop trading, and then review your business\trading plan for new objectives and risk parameters to determine if you can still trade, then build a new plan if required.  You may have to consider Psychological Risk Capital too,  how much are you OK with risking on your account? at what level of draw-down would you start to feel uncomfortable trading with confidence?  Keeping in mind the inexperienced trader that is very risk averse, may have a knock on confidence with very little draw-down, whereas a more experienced risk accepting trader may stomach more of a draw-down and still keep the belief and confidence required to keep moving forward.

As traders our job is to avoid reaching our point of  Ruin.  So you must work out your probability\chances of reaching this level of draw-down.  In its simplest terms the more you risk per trade and per day, the more you increase your risk of ruin.  So the easiest way to avoid Risk Of Ruin is to only risk a small amount of your account per day.  I usually recommend 1-2% maximum of account capital per day.  For new traders 1% (Ideally less!) at most.  Note that’s per day NOT per trade!

There is a formula for working out your Risk of Ruin, and ideally you Risk of Ruin should be between 0 % – 0.5%.  NOTE: It is mathematically impossible for the risk of ruin being 0.0 percent!  So the aim is below 0.5%, which when rounded down is 0%.  When you get above 1% and higher that’s when you know you are risking too much, and the risk of Ruin is becoming positive, meaning that its only a matter of time before could blow out and reach you max drawn-down level!  Therefore it is advised that you DO NOT trade until you are comfortable that you can perform (With simulated trading if you are a discretionary trader or on a back-test  for an automated system) at a level where Risk of Ruin is less than 0.5% and ideally towards 0% as possible.

There are a number of ways to calculate Risk of Ruin, however the most common formula is:

Risk of Ruin = (1-(W-L))/(1+(W-L))^ U (Where W=Probability of winning, L+ Probability of Losing, ^ denoted the power of U + Number of Maximum Risk Trades that may be taken).

You can also find a more advanced formula with a useful calculator HERE.

Here is an example of trader A with a $50,000 account and is willing to Risk a Maximum drawdown of 30%, which is a Point of Ruin at -$15,000.  Lets assume Trader A has proven through his trading that he can gain the following averages: Win% = 60%, Loss% = 40%, Risk per trade is 1% of full account at $500 so max trades he may take and lose sequentially is 30 trades before he reaches the Point of Ruin (Max Drawdown).

So his Risk of Ruin is worked out as follows:

(1-(0.2)/1+(0.2))^30 =

(0.8/1.2)^30 =

(0.666666)^30 = 0.000005214 = 0% (When rounded down).

Which is a VERY low Risk of Ruin!  This allows for this trader to take risk comfortably knowing that there is very little chance of ruin.  Of course this assumes that the trader keeps performing well!  If the Win rate and Win to loss ratio adjusts over time the Risk of ruin may increase\decrease.

Now lets consider Trader B who takes too much risk and is under-capitalised.  He has a $10,000 account and is willing to Risk a Maximum drawdown of 30%, which is a Point of Ruin at -$3000. Win% = 60%, Loss% = 40%, Risk per trade is 10% of full account at $1000 so max trades he may take and lose sequentially is 3 trades before he reaches the Point of Ruin (Max Drawdown).

So his Risk of Ruin is worked out as follows

(1-(0.2)/1+(0.2))^3 =

(0.8/1.2)^3 =

(0.666666)^3 = 0.2962954074083 = 30% (Rounded up)

That’s a big difference, with the same technical performance but a smaller account and more risk.  Trader B has a high chance of Ruin.

Our main job as traders should be to reduce any chance of ruin.  Any probability in favour of ruin is not good!  You as the trader are in control of your risk of ruin.  Therefore it’s essential to Position Size and Manage Risk accordingly for each trade and every day so that Risk is minimal, and Risk of Ruin is kept to the minimal.

So lets consider the ways that you can reduce your risk of ruin:

  1. Increase your accuracy and obtain a Higher Win%.
  2. Increase your Win to average loss pay-off ratio.
  3. Reduce the amount of money Risked per trade and per day by trading more capital or taking less risk per trade\day. (Everyone can do this one – at least reducing risk!)

So if you don’t already know your Risk of Ruin, make it your job to know before you take your next trade!

 

 

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3 Responses to What is your Risk of Ruin?

  1. Pingback: Risk of Ruin | Markets on Fire

  2. David Kent says:

    Genius as always Kam,

    It is funny to me that you are one of the few people on the planet that gets it. Amazing how you understand how the market conducts business, yes the market is a business just like Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon. Kam sees this natural ebb and flow of the markets. It is so simple, you sell high and buy low, oh but what is high and what is low you say, and this is where the genius and experience of someone like Kam comes in. You have really helped me tremedously over the years Kam and this is my way of saying thank you. I remember about 4 years or so ago I was looking at my computer screens and saying “you have no idea how these markets work”. Well that changed after I met Kam via MarketDelta. Because now I know you do understand the market dynamics and the reason they are not random. Think about it, million and millions of dollars (pounds, yen or francs etc) are at stake when the markets move, the professionals like Kam know that the markets are structured and understand how the structure works. And because of this understanding they also are profitable.

    Thanks Kam :)

  3. Kam Dhadwar says:

    That is a VERY VERY kind comment indeed David, Thank you, I am humbled. It’s business, and it’s about figuring out how this mass market does business and a collective conscious. Get behind the mindset of the market!

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